Phase IITask 1: Develop meteorological and emission data inputs for modeling of trans-Pacific pollutants transport The objective of this task is to assess the impacts of intercontinental transport across the Pacific Ocean by applying the EPA Models-3/CMAQ. The focus of the task is the preparation of the emissions and meteorological inputs to the Models-3/CMAQ. The following subtasks will be completed: (1) Select the modeling domain and configuration and perform month-long MM5 test runs to determine the best physics options for simulating intercontinental transport across the Pacific Ocean; (2) perform MM5 annual simulations for 2001 to provide meteorological inputs for the Models-3/CMAQ system for the selected domain; (3) prepare emissions data for year 2001 by integrating emissions estimates from different sources and regions; (4) develop future emissions projections and scenarios for the Asia/Pacific/North America region; and (5) document the meteorology and emissions input preparation for the Models-3/CMAQ. Task 2: Develop meteorological and emission data inputs for trans-Atlantic (U.S.-Europe-Asia) modeling The objective of this task is to extend the modeling effort for the assessment of trans-Pacific transport, described in Task 1, for the assessment of trans-Atlantic transport across Europe and Asia. Meteorological inputs and emission inventories will be prepared, and SMOKE will be used for temporal and spatial (gridded) allocations of emissions. Task 3: Apply global chemistry-transport models and develop an interface for model nesting with the selected regional air quality model The objective is to use an existing and broadly applied global CTM and develop an interface between that model and the CMAQ regional model. The GEOS-CHEM global model will be used. GEOS_CHEM represents the latest generation of global models of tropospheric chemistry at Harvard and is presently being used at a number of institutions (http://www-as.harvard.edu/chemistry/trop/geos). The interface with CMAQ will focus on the coupled simulation of ozone, PM, and their precursors. The GEOS-CHEM model is driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). It includes a detailed simulation capability for ozone that has been reported in a number of papers. Recently a coupled ozone-PM simulation capability has been developed in GEOS-CHEM, with joint funding from ICAP (Phase 1) and EPRI; summary of this capability is given below. The coupled ozone-PM model will be used in the proposed project. Task 4: Apply global chemistry-radiation-climate models to assess the linkage of air pollution to regional meteorological patterns and climate The objective of this task is to study, systematically, the effect on regional-scale climate of reducing gas and particle emissions, both by source and species. This task involves calculating the regional-scale climate response of controlling biomass burning emissions, fossil-fuel emissions, and emissions of individual gas and aerosol species from all anthropogenic sources. The task is motivated by the fact that anthropogenic emissions of gases and particles since the Industrial Revolution have affected Earth’s climate, not only in the global average, but also on the regional scale. Yet it is still uncertain what the effects of anthropogenic emissions on regional climate have been to date and what they will be in the future. Even more uncertain is the regional-scale effect of eliminating emissions that are thought to cause global warming, including long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, and particulate black carbon (BC). Task 5: Assist EPA in conducting intercontinental transport modeling and analyzing model outputs for the assessment of regional air quality and potential radiative forcing and near-term climate effects The objective of this task is to provide assistance to the EPA OAQPS Air Quality Modeling Group (AQMG) in conducting intercontinental transport modeling exercises for the selected domains described above using CMAQ. This task will involve extensive modeling and sensitivity analyses using 2001 as the base year to identify potential impacts of intercontinental transport on regional air quality, particularly on ambient concentrations of ozone and PM. The task includes the preparations and QA/QC of meteorological and emission data and modeling analysis efforts as described below. Task 6: Analyze and evaluate the model results using surface-based, aircraft and satellite observations The objective of this task is to use observational conventional and satellite data such daily satellite data (TOMS, SeaWiFS, GOES), routine surface monitoring (PM10, PM2.5, Aerosol Chemistry, Aerosol Optical Properties), and special remote sensing data (LIDAR, sun photometers) to evaluate and complement the model results and to characterize the impacts of intercontinental pollutant transport on short- and long-term U.S. air quality and its implication on global air quality. Task 7: Assess the impact of climate change on meteorological factors relevant to regional air quality The objective of this task is to explore the impact of climate change on meteorological factors related to air quality. Climate trends could affect meteorological factors, such as mixing heights, stagnation patterns, temperature, and precipitation, which could in turn exacerbate air quality problems. Further, precursor emissions from sources such as biogenics could be enhanced due to increases in temperature. These issues will be explored with chemical tracer simulations in a general circulation model (GCM), focusing on the effects of 2000-2050 climate change on air quality in the United States. The goals of this pilot study will be to develop a first-order understanding of the sign and magnitude of the effects, and to determine the best approach for a more detailed assessment using a regional-scale model such as CMAQ. The need for such a pilot study is driven by the difficulties in assessing future trends in the regional-scale meteorological factors determining the formation and accumulation of pollutants in the U.S. Separating climate change from inter-annual variability is a major issue. Task 8: Conduct a regional modeling pilot study over China The objective of this task is to conduct a regional modeling demonstration in China using the CMAQ modeling system. This modeling effort will need the meteorological and emissions data inputs for the CMAQ simulations. Obtaining the emission inventories over China will be a key element for this task. To reduce the resources requirement, we recommend that the China EI data be built on existing EI data developed under ongoing international activities such as the NASA TRACE-P program and the NSF/NOAA ACE-Asia program for an appropriate China inventory. However, international travel may be required to prepare a comprehensive meteorological and emission data for the modeling efforts proposed under this task. An item for international travel is included in the budget for this task. Task 9: Develop a web site for reporting project status, progress, and results A web site will be established to enhance communication and exchange of information (results, analyses, data, and announcements) among the team of investigators and EPA. Such a site could also be accessed by other members of the community subject to the approval of the project CR.
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